(1) San Diego's $14 Billion Civic Center Revitalization Roadmap:

'Road map' to revitalize San Diego Civic Center estimates major city savings | KPBS Public Media

Promised Savings Hinge on Decisions the City Has Not Yet Made - no Source of Funding Identified

Backers say relocating City Hall could save more than $325 million. A closer reading of the underlying study, the city's fiscal posture, and the recent history of San Diego real estate deals suggests the figure is real but conditional — and that the upfront cost question has not been fully answered.

San Diego — April 16, 2026

Bottom Line Up Front: 

The Prebys Foundation and Downtown San Diego Partnership on April 14, 2026 released an implementation roadmap projecting that revitalizing San Diego's six-block Civic Center would generate $14.4 billion in one-time economic impact, $428 million in annual ongoing impact, roughly 2,300 housing units, and at least $325 million in long-term facilities savings to the City. The savings figure is the 20-year net-present-value difference between renovating the deteriorating City Administration Building (estimated at $487 million over 20 years) and relocating City Hall functions into vacant downtown office space (estimated at $156 million to purchase or $162 million to lease). The number is plausible on its face, but it is not free money: it requires the City to commit hundreds of millions of dollars in upfront capital — either to acquire a building such as the foreclosed Campus at Horton or the Wells Fargo tower, or to enter a long-term lease — at a moment when the City is already operating with a structural budget deficit of roughly $90 million for FY 2027 and has set aside no identified funding source. The roadmap also depends on the formation of a new Joint Powers Authority by 2027, a governance vehicle that has come under sharp scrutiny statewide for transparency and debt-issuance practices. A City Hall relocation decision is targeted for late 2026.

What was announced this week

On April 14, the Prebys Foundation and the Downtown San Diego Partnership released what they describe as an actionable "road map" for the long-discussed redevelopment of San Diego's Civic Center, the six-block, city-owned downtown district that includes the Civic Theatre, Golden Hall, Civic Center Plaza, the Evan Jones Parkade, the City Administration Building (CAB), and the King-Chavez High School site. The plan was prepared by Philadelphia-based U3 Advisors, the consulting firm the Prebys Foundation has been funding to lead the planning effort since 2024.

The roadmap calls for forming a Joint Powers Authority (JPA) by 2027 — a partnership among the City of San Diego, the San Diego Community College District (SDCCD), and the Regional Housing Finance Authority — supported by a nonprofit entity that would, in the proponents' words, "manage a quicker implementation and ensure coordinated leadership, accountability, and long-term stewardship." A City Hall relocation decision is targeted for late 2026, with completion of initial Phase 1 projects within five years.

Phase 1 envisions an education and culture hub at the current Golden Hall site, possibly anchored by SDCCD; a renovated Civic Theatre with an adjacent new hotel; and the relocation of City Hall out of the CAB. Phase 2 would redevelop the Civic Center Plaza building, the King-Chavez site, and the parkade as a mix of housing types with active ground-floor uses. At full build-out, the vision includes roughly 2,300 housing units, 400,000 square feet of cultural and educational space, three acres of open space, and approximately $3.3 billion in private investment.

Betsy Brennan, president and CEO of the Downtown San Diego Partnership, framed the plan as a turning point: "This road map lays out a clear path to reenergize the heart of Downtown as a place where people live, learn, and connect."

Grant Oliphant, CEO of the Prebys Foundation, added: "The city and City Council called for greater clarity on how to move downtown revitalization forward. This plan offers a clear, actionable path — one that can move ahead with partners who are ready to go and can help make this happen."

Where the $325 million savings figure comes from

The $325 million savings claim is drawn from the U3 Advisors economic impact study released January 20, 2026, titled "San Diego Civic Center Revitalization: Quantifying Transformative Economic Impact." The figure is the 20-year net-present-value comparison between two options U3 modeled for handling roughly 250,000 square feet of City office space currently in the CAB and in scattered downtown leases:

• Option 1 — Renovate / Stay in Place: Comprehensive modernization of the existing CAB and adjacent parkade, plus continued lease of approximately 100,000 square feet of off-site space. Estimated 20-year cost: approximately $487 million.
• Option 2 — Relocate to an Existing Downtown Building: Vacate and demolish the CAB and Golden Hall, consolidate operations in one downtown building. Estimated 20-year NPV: approximately $156 million (purchase) or $162 million (long-term lease).

The difference — roughly $325 million to $331 million over 20 years — is the headline savings figure. The study notes that the CAB alone carries an estimated $106 million in deferred maintenance, the largest such backlog in the City's occupied office portfolio, and that the broader Civic Center complex has approximately $263 million in deferred maintenance across three buildings.

U3's analysis is anchored to current downtown office market conditions, which the firm describes as historically favorable to buyers and tenants. According to the study, downtown office vacancy is averaging roughly 35 percent — about three times the citywide average — and recent office tower sales have averaged $118 per square foot, down from $350 per square foot in 2021. More than 1.2 million square feet of new office space was delivered to the downtown market in 2025 alone, pushing Class A asking rents down to $34 per square foot, with recent deals reportedly closing in the $24–$26 range.

How realistic is the savings? A closer look at the assumptions

The U3 figures are internally consistent and reflect a defensible methodology — the use of Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS-II) multipliers for economic impact, and standard NPV comparison for the City Hall options. But several caveats deserve attention.

First, the savings are 20-year cumulative, not annual. A $325 million savings spread over two decades works out to roughly $16 million per year on average. That is a meaningful amount in a constrained budget but is far smaller than the headline number suggests, and it does not begin until after the upfront capital outlay is made.

Second, the savings are "avoided cost," not new revenue. The figure represents money the City would otherwise have to spend on a $487 million CAB renovation. It is real if — and only if — the alternative scenario is actually executed. If the City instead simply continues to defer maintenance (as it has for years), neither option's costs are incurred, and no savings materialize.

Third, market conditions are a snapshot. U3's Option 2 cost estimate hinges on today's depressed downtown office market. The Campus at Horton, a $300-million-plus redevelopment, was returned to lender AllianceBernstein in late 2025 after the developer defaulted; lender bidding at foreclosure was reported at roughly $130 million. The Prebys Foundation itself purchased the 24-story Wells Fargo Building for $40 million earlier in 2025, according to Axios San Diego. These distressed-asset prices make Option 2 look attractive now, but acquisition negotiations could easily extend into a recovering market.

Fourth, the original 2025 vision included roughly 3,000 housing units; the January 2026 update reduced that to approximately 2,300 after 101 Ash Street was carved out for a separate affordable-housing redevelopment. Programmatic assumptions of this kind continue to shift, and economic-impact projections shift with them.

Fifth, U3 itself is funded by the Prebys Foundation and reports through the Downtown San Diego Partnership. The work is described by all parties as independent, and the City Council formally requested the analysis. But the study is not a city-commissioned audit, and its proponents have a clear interest in advancing the project. The earlier 2024 P3 Advisors options analysis, which U3 cites, reached a similar conclusion that purchasing an existing building would be the most cost-effective path. So did a 2021 JLL downtown office analysis. The convergence is suggestive, but all three studies were commissioned in environments favorable to relocation conclusions.

The upfront-investment question

The roadmap is candid that relocation requires capital. What it does not specify is where that capital will come from.

U3's Option 2 purchase scenario is modeled at a 20-year NPV of approximately $156 million. That figure includes acquisition, tenant improvements, the cost of vacating and demolishing the existing CAB and Golden Hall, and ongoing operating expenses, discounted to present value. The undiscounted upfront acquisition cost for a 250,000-square-foot downtown building plus tenant improvements would likely run between $75 million and $150 million depending on which property is selected and what condition it is in.

The City has no identified funding source for that outlay. According to the City's December 2025 First Quarter Budget Monitoring Report, the General Fund is projecting a $22.9 million deficit for the current fiscal year, with police and fire-rescue overtime running tens of millions over budget and hotel-tax revenues trending below projections. Independent Budget Analyst Charles Modica told the Council on December 15, 2025 that "the city's existing resources are insufficient to allow it to provide the services that it currently does." The FY 2027 deficit, according to a December memo from Mayor Todd Gloria, is currently projected at $88.8 million, potentially rising to $110 million.

The roadmap's answer to this gap is the proposed Joint Powers Authority. JPAs in California have broad authority to issue bonds — including Marks-Roos bonds — without direct voter approval. That capacity is what allows U3 and the project's backers to envision financing without a tax-measure campaign. The City Council in 2024 commissioned a $2 million advisory contract with the Canadian firm P2 Advisers on whether a new tower should be built, and a separate 2022 contract with JLL originally budgeted at $725,000 to assess downtown office needs, according to reporting by the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The Joint Powers Authority question

The proposed JPA — combining the City of San Diego, SDCCD, the Regional Housing Finance Authority, and a nonprofit administrator — is the operational engine of the roadmap. Omar Blaik, CEO of U3 Advisors, described it as "a governance and operational model that has produced remarkable results in other districts across the country."

That characterization is true in some cases. JPAs have been used effectively in California for everything from regional fire dispatch (North County Dispatch JPA) to wastewater management (Metro Wastewater JPA). But the structure has also drawn sustained scrutiny.

A 2021 Nevada County Grand Jury report titled "Joint Powers Authorities: What You Need to Know" warned that JPAs can be, "at their worst, sinkholes for cost overruns and cronyism" that "lack transparency, and evade oversight by citizens and officials." A 2014–15 Orange County Grand Jury report identified four specific concerns: viability of JPAs after redevelopment-agency dissolution, the use of JPAs by single government entities to act as effective shell organizations, lack of transparency in financial disclosure, and extreme debt-to-revenue ratios. A 2017–18 Contra Costa County Grand Jury report (Report 1808) reached similar conclusions. The case of the City of Bell, which used a vertical JPA structure to issue debt without voter approval, is frequently cited as the cautionary example.

None of this means the proposed San Diego Civic Center JPA is destined to repeat those failures. Horizontal JPAs that bring together genuinely independent member agencies — as the proposed structure with the City, SDCCD, and the Regional Housing Finance Authority would — have stronger built-in checks than vertical JPAs controlled by a single sponsor. JPAs are subject to the Brown Act and the California Public Records Act. But the structural concerns about debt issuance without voter approval are well-documented, and they apply with particular force to a project of this scale.

The 101 Ash Street shadow

No serious discussion of San Diego Civic Center real estate can avoid the 101 Ash Street experience. The City entered a lease-to-own arrangement on the former Sempra Energy headquarters in 2017, mediated by broker Jason Hughes — who was later determined to have collected approximately $9.4 million from intermediary Cisterra Development while presenting himself as a "special volunteer" to the City. The building was found unsafe for occupation due to asbestos contamination shortly after staff began moving in. After years of litigation, the City Council voted 6–3 in July 2022 to settle, agreeing to purchase 101 Ash for $86 million and the adjacent Civic Center Plaza for $46 million — approximately $132 million in total. A 2020 Kitchell review found 101 Ash required up to $115 million in additional remediation.

City Attorney Mara Elliott urged the Council to reject the settlement and pursue the case to trial. Hughes pleaded guilty in 2023 to a misdemeanor conflict-of-interest charge under Government Code §1090 and returned the $9.4 million. Cisterra retained $6.2 million in profits from the Civic Center Plaza deal. The San Diego County Taxpayers Association, in a 2024 report, laid out four principles it said should govern any future Civic Center work: transparency, robust public involvement at every step, a timeline sufficient to guarantee that involvement, and "safeguards to protect taxpayers from outcomes like we have seen at 101 Ash Street."

The 101 Ash building is now slated, separately, for redevelopment as roughly 250 units of affordable housing. The City Operations Building at 1222 First Avenue has been advanced for disposal under the state Surplus Lands Act.

The timeline

The roadmap's near-term milestones, as released this week:

• Late 2026: City Council decision on City Hall relocation.
• 2027: Formation of the Joint Powers Authority (or alternative partnership structure).
• Within 5 years (by approximately 2031): Completion of initial Phase 1 projects, including the Golden Hall education-and-culture hub.
• Phase 2 (timing not specified): Redevelopment of Civic Center Plaza, King-Chavez High School site, and the Evan Jones Parkade.

For context, the broader effort has been underway in some form since Mayor Gloria's 2023 Civic Center Revitalization Working Group; the Prebys Foundation made its initial $303,000 grant to fund the U3 study in April 2024; the new vision was unveiled in May 2025; the economic impact study followed in January 2026; and the implementation roadmap arrived this week. A May 2026 implementation plan, with phasing options and financing mechanisms, has been promised but not yet released in detail.

Voices of caution

Councilmember Kent Lee, at a July 2025 Council briefing, reminded Brennan and Oliphant that, in his words, the typical San Diego resident is not yet convinced this is a priority. "The city has a challenged history when it comes to real estate," Lee said.

The OB Rag editorialist Kate Callen has written that the project's timeline and transparency commitments have not yet met the standard the County Taxpayers Association set out. Voice of San Diego's Scott Lewis, in a December 2024 column, argued that the project "is not costing the city anything right now" because most planning work is privately funded — a defense Callen disputed by pointing to active city advisory contracts.

For their part, the project's backers note that the work to date has come at no direct cost to the City. Mayor Gloria has consistently expressed support, telling reporters in July 2025 that he is "grateful to the Prebys Foundation and the Downtown San Diego Partnership for their continued passion for activating our Civic Center."

What to watch

Three indicators will determine whether the projected savings materialize:

1. The City Hall relocation decision in late 2026. Without a formal Council action committing to vacate the CAB, the $325 million savings calculation collapses. The choice between the foreclosed Campus at Horton, the Wells Fargo Building (now Prebys-owned), or another property will determine actual upfront cost.

2. The financing mechanism. Will acquisition be funded by JPA bond issuance? By a sale-leaseback? By proceeds from disposing of the CAB site? Each path has very different implications for taxpayer exposure and voter approval.

3. The JPA's governance structure. The difference between a horizontal JPA with genuine multi-agency oversight and a vertical JPA functioning as a city-controlled financing shell is the difference between the model U3 cites favorably and the model the grand juries have flagged.

The Civic Center site is, as U3 puts it, a "once-in-a-generation" opportunity. Whether the roadmap released this week represents a credible path to capturing that opportunity — or a sophisticated framing of decisions the City has not yet made and cannot currently afford — will depend on how the next eighteen months unfold.

Sources

1. City News Service / KPBS Public Media. "'Road map' to revitalize San Diego Civic Center estimates major city savings." April 14, 2026. https://www.kpbs.org/news/economy/2026/04/14/road-map-to-revitalize-san-diego-civic-center-estimates-major-city-savings
2. Jennewein, Chris. "New Civic Center plan envisions multi-billion 're-energizing' of downtown hub." Times of San Diego, April 15, 2026. https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2026/04/15/new-civic-center-plan-envisions-multi-billion-re-energizing-downtown-hub/
3. NBC 7 San Diego. "San Diego Civic Center revitalization may gain momentum despite city budget woes." April 15, 2026. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/san-diego-civic-center-revitalization-may-gain-momentum-despite-city-budget-woes/4010505/
4. U3 Advisors / Downtown San Diego Partnership / Prebys Foundation. "San Diego Civic Center Revitalization: Quantifying Transformative Economic Impact." January 20, 2026. https://downtownsandiego.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/260126_SD-Civic-Center-Economic-Impact-Study-Report.pdf
5. Prebys Foundation. "Economic Analysis: Reimagined San Diego Civic Center Plan will bring $14.4 Billion to the Region." January 27, 2026. https://www.prebysfdn.org/stories/blog/news/economic-analysis-reimagined-san-diego-civic-center-plan-will-bring-14-4-billion-to-the-region
6. Inside San Diego (City of San Diego). "Affordable Housing and Civic Center Redevelopment Plans Advance for Downtown San Diego." July 2, 2025. https://www.insidesandiego.org/affordable-housing-and-civic-center-redevelopment-plans-advance-downtown-san-diego
7. Inside San Diego (City of San Diego). "Mayor Gloria Releases Final Proposed Budget for Fiscal Year 2026." May 14, 2025. https://www.insidesandiego.org/mayor-gloria-releases-final-proposed-budget-fiscal-year-2026
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9. Voice of San Diego. "All the New Fees Still Not Enough to Cover City Budget Deficit." December 4, 2025. https://voiceofsandiego.org/2025/12/04/all-the-new-fees-still-not-enough-to-cover-city-budget-deficit/
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12. Times of San Diego. "City Council OKs Purchase of 101 Ash, Civic Center Plaza to Settle Years-Old Dispute." July 26, 2022. https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2022/07/26/city-council-approves-legal-settlement-on-101-ash-street-civic-center-plaza/
13. Voice of San Diego. "What's In the City's Proposed 101 Ash Settlement." June 25, 2022. https://voiceofsandiego.org/2022/06/25/whats-in-the-citys-proposed-101-ash-settlement/
14. KPBS Public Media. "San Diego settles over 101 Ash deal; DA files criminal charges." March 22, 2023. https://www.kpbs.org/news/local/2023/03/22/city-council-to-consider-settlement-with-hughes-over-101-ash-street-deal
15. City of San Diego. "City Council Approves Legal Settlement on 101 Ash Street, Civic Center Plaza." July 26, 2022. https://www.sandiego.gov/mayor/city-council-approves-legal-settlement-101-ash-street-civic-center-plaza
16. Callen, Kate. "'Civic Center Revitalization' Was Already DOA — Now It's Official." OB Rag, December 11, 2024. https://obrag.org/2024/12/civic-center-revitalization-was-already-doa-now-its-official/
17. Keatts, Andrew. "5 big housing development fights to watch in 2026." Times of San Diego, January 2, 2026. https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2026/01/02/san-diego-controversial-housing-developments-2026/
18. FOX 5 San Diego. "Horton Plaza redevelopment faces yet another setback after failing to sell at auction." August 19, 2025. https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/san-diego/san-diego-horton-plaza-future/
19. Bisnow Los Angeles. "Lender Takes Over San Diego's Campus At Horton For $130M Bid." September 10, 2025. https://www.bisnow.com/los-angeles/news/life-sciences/horton-plaza-foreclosure-sale-alliancebernstein-130905
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21. Contra Costa County Grand Jury. "Joint Powers Authorities — Transparency and Accountability." Report 1808, 2017–2018. https://www.cc-courts.org/civil/docs/grandjury/2017-2018/1808/1808-Joint_Powers_Authorities.pdf
22. Orange County Grand Jury. "Joint Powers Authorities: Issues of Viability, Control, Transparency, and Solvency." 2014–2015 Report. http://cams.ocgov.com/Web_Publisher_Sam/Agenda03_22_2016_files/images/O00616-000294A.PDF
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24. FOX 5 San Diego / KUSI. "San Diego's Civic Center development project gets funding from Prebys Foundation." April 2, 2024. https://fox5sandiego.com/news/local-news/prebys-foundation-steps-in-to-fund-civic-center-redevelopment-study/
25. City of San Diego. "Fiscal Year 2026 Adopted Budget." https://www.sandiego.gov/finance/annual