Waymo Comes to San Diego: What the Safety Record and the Economics Really Show
As Waymo expands to San Diego, rideshare drivers say they’re concerned about safety – NBC 7 San Diego
As the robotaxi company prepares a mid-2026 launch in America's Finest City, rideshare drivers, transit officials, and regulators are asking hard questions about safety, jobs, and who controls the streets.
San Diego has always prided itself on being a city that moves — military convoys threading through Kearny Mesa, surfers hauling boards to La Jolla, hospital workers crossing midnight shifts in Hillcrest. Soon, some of those trips may be handled by a Jaguar or Zeekr electric minivan with no one in the driver's seat. Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous vehicle subsidiary, has confirmed a mid-2026 launch in San Diego, beginning with a handful of driverless taxis concentrated in the Gaslamp Quarter, downtown, Logan Heights, and Pacific Beach. The announcement has ignited a debate that cuts across technology, labor, public safety, and democratic accountability — a debate this city will need to settle before the first passenger steps in and the screen reads Arriving now.
San Diego Braces for Arrival
Waymo announced its San Diego plans in November 2025, posting a blog declaring, in a nod to local culture, that it would "roll autonomously like our burritos — California style." The company told the San Diego Union-Tribune that San Diego ranks among the top 15 U.S. cities for ride-hailing demand, making it a commercially attractive target. By late November, Zeekr RT minivans — the newer model replacing the Jaguar I-PACE — had already appeared on local streets for mapping runs, staffed by safety drivers but operating in autonomous mode.
San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria issued an enthusiastic statement: "By welcoming innovative and promising technologies like Waymo's autonomous vehicle service, we're exploring how to make transportation more accessible, more sustainable, and more connected for everyone in our community." The company also partnered with a local senior advocacy organization in December, demonstrating Waymo rides for older residents who can no longer drive — a use case that has earned it goodwill even among skeptics.
Not everyone cheered. The San Diego Metropolitan Transit System (MTS) Board of Directors voted nearly unanimously in January 2026 to oppose Waymo's expansion without local regulation or oversight, and to submit formal letters of protest to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). The board also backed an outright ban on Waymo operations at San Diego International Airport.
"Waymo's driverless cars are not fair competition. These vehicles raise serious safety concerns. No machine can replace the human connection between a driver and their customer."
City Councilman Sean Elo-Rivera, who chairs the MTS Taxi Advisory Committee and sponsored the resolution, framed it in explicitly human terms: "San Diego's drivers help keep this city moving, fed and well-supplied. These are hardworking people who rely on driving to pay rent, put food on the table, and care for their families. No corporation should be allowed to quietly replace people with machines just to boost profits."
The Safety Record: What the Data Actually Shows
To evaluate the safety claims swirling around Waymo, it helps to separate raw incident counts from rate-adjusted comparisons — a distinction that is frequently lost in public debate. Waymo has now logged nearly 100 million fully driverless miles across Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, producing by far the largest publicly available autonomous vehicle safety dataset in the world.
These figures come from peer-reviewed research published in Traffic Injury Prevention by Waymo scientists in collaboration with external researchers. The most comprehensive study — Kusano et al. (2025) — covers 56.7 million rider-only miles and benchmarks Waymo's crash rates against adjusted human driver data from Phoenix and San Francisco, using methodology developed jointly with Swiss Re, the global insurance giant. The Swiss Re collaboration is notable precisely because the insurer, not Waymo, determined which claims were payable — providing a financial-accountability check on the data.
A review of NHTSA's mandatory Standing General Order filings through November 2025 identified 1,429 incidents involving Waymo vehicles over approximately four years, resulting in 117 reported injuries and 2 fatalities. Critically, the NHTSA data does not distinguish fault, and independent analyses have found that the large majority of serious Waymo crashes were caused by other drivers: rear-ending a stationary Waymo, crossing double-yellow lines, or running red lights. A detailed review by the technology publication Understanding AI examined 38 serious Waymo crashes between July 2024 and February 2025 and concluded that only one was clearly attributable to Waymo's autonomous software.
The School Bus, The Police Scene, and The Child
The California Gig Workers Union, which represents drivers for Uber and Lyft among others, has documented a separate category of concerns: behavioral failures that aren't crashes but that suggest the autonomous system cannot reliably interpret complex human situations. Among the reported incidents cited by the union: Waymo vehicles illegally passing stopped school buses; a vehicle entering an active police scene; and in one case in Santa Monica, a Waymo striking a child near an elementary school. Waymo disputes some characterizations and has argued that its vehicles meet or exceed all regulatory requirements, and that remote operators are on standby — not actively controlling hundreds of vehicles simultaneously, as critics sometimes imply, but available to be dispatched when an incident occurs.
That distinction matters. Union organizer Jesus Garcia has argued that the standby model still shifts the burden of in-field incident management to first responders and taxpayers: "If there's an accident, first responders come in and they're pretty much doing Waymo's job. They have to move [the vehicle], they talk to the operator on standby — we don't need our tax money funding that." First responder training has indeed become a live issue; NBC 7 San Diego reported that new training programs are being developed to teach local emergency personnel how to interact with driverless vehicles.
Behavioral Adjustments and Growing Pains
A subtler safety concern emerged in late 2024, when Waymo's senior director of product management publicly confirmed that the company had deliberately made its vehicles more "confidently assertive" in dense urban environments like San Francisco. The Wall Street Journal documented incidents including simultaneous lane changes in a tunnel and an illegal U-turn that prompted a police stop. Waymo maintained that its cars still respect traffic laws but must make "common-sense trade-offs" — such as briefly crossing a double-yellow line to avoid blocking traffic. Critics argue this framing normalizes incremental rule-bending in the name of scalability.
Recalls have also occurred. In May 2024, Waymo voluntarily recalled 672 vehicles after a low-speed collision with a utility pole in a Phoenix alley revealed a software gap in detecting pole-like objects; a software update resolved the issue. In May 2025, a second recall covering 1,212 vehicles addressed a software defect that could cause minor collisions with roadside barriers such as gates and chains.
The Legislative Landscape: A Patchwork Still Under Construction
California's regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles is a work in progress. Under current law, the state — through the DMV and CPUC — holds exclusive authority over testing and deployment permits. Local governments have no formal role: they cannot cap fleet sizes, restrict operating zones, or independently investigate incidents. That pre-emption was a deliberate choice when California's AV regulations were first written, intended to prevent a patchwork of incompatible city-by-city rules that would have strangled the industry. But as Waymo's presence in San Francisco and Los Angeles has grown from novelty to infrastructure, the absence of local accountability has become increasingly contentious.
State Senator Dave Cortese (D-San Jose) has led the legislative push for change. His earlier bill, SB 915 — the Autonomous Vehicle Service Deployment and Data Transparency Act — would have empowered local governments to issue their own AV permits, cap fleet sizes, set fare maximums, and require real-time data sharing with cities. The bill drew support from the cities of Oakland, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, as well as Los Angeles and San Mateo counties, and from the Teamsters. But it died in the state Assembly in 2024 after opposition from Waymo and the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association.
A newer bill, SB 1246, has been introduced in the current legislative session with similar aims: requiring that autonomous vehicle operators understand California traffic law and establishing caps on the ratio of vehicles to remote supervisors. SB 1246 is still in committee and faces an uncertain path. Meanwhile, California's DMV finalized updated AV regulations in early 2026, requiring a tiered permitting process — supervised testing, driverless testing, and commercial deployment — and mandating detailed incident reporting beginning July 31, 2025. The new rules also, for the first time, allow heavy-duty autonomous trucks on California's public roads, signaling the state's intent to accelerate the technology's rollout across sectors.
The Economics: Who Gains, Who Loses, and By How Much
For Waymo drivers — there are none, which is precisely the point — the economics are Alphabet's problem and Alphabet's opportunity. For Uber and Lyft drivers, the calculus is more personal and more precarious.
Market Share: San Francisco as a Preview
San Francisco, where Waymo launched commercially in June 2023 and expanded citywide in mid-2024, offers the most data-rich preview of what San Diego may experience. According to credit card spending data from Earnest Analytics, Waymo's share of San Francisco's ride-hailing market was essentially zero when it launched. By January 2025, it had reached roughly 14% of ride-hailing dollars within its operating zone. By mid-2025, YipitData — a market research firm that analyzes consumer receipts — reported Waymo had surpassed Lyft in gross bookings in San Francisco. The latest figures indicate Waymo holds approximately 27% of the San Francisco market, with Uber at just over 50% and Lyft at 21%.
The market-share loss at Lyft has been particularly sharp. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi and Lyft CEO David Risher both dispute the most aggressive claims, arguing that Waymo is growing the total market rather than simply displacing human drivers — a view partly supported by data showing that Waymo's core customers are people who previously drove their own cars, not former Uber or Lyft users. In cities where Waymo operates, Uber has reported industry-wide rideshare growth running five times faster than in comparable cities without autonomous vehicles. Lyft's Risher, speaking at an earnings call, maintained that his company's San Francisco market share was essentially flat when measured against the full rideshare market rather than just Waymo's operating zone.
But the trend lines are clear and accelerating. Earnest credit card data shows that Uber users who try Waymo for the first time subsequently reduce their Uber spending by about 8% per quarter. Over 33% of Waymo customers in San Francisco returned 13 months after their first ride — versus 23% for Uber and 14% for Lyft — suggesting Waymo builds stronger habit formation among its users.
Driver Income and the "Market Expansion" Argument
Perhaps the most contested economic question is whether Waymo expands the market enough to offset displacement. In San Francisco, the number of people employed in "taxi and limousine service" companies actually rose 7% in 2024 compared to the prior year, with total compensation rising 14%, according to city data. Uber reported that San Francisco drivers earned more than $33 per hour before tips in the fourth quarter of 2024. These figures suggest that, at least in the early expansion phase, the overall market is indeed growing.
But critics point out that the gains are not evenly distributed. Waymo operates exclusively in dense, high-demand urban cores — the most lucrative zones for human drivers — leaving the less profitable fringes to Uber and Lyft. Independent rideshare drivers in San Francisco have been publicly vocal that available requests have declined sharply in Waymo's operating area, even as aggregate city-wide figures look healthier. The independent contractor model that defines Uber and Lyft provides no floor — no minimum hours, no severance, no transition support if demand in a driver's home territory evaporates.
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi acknowledged the longer-term trajectory at a tech summit in September 2025, saying that in 10 to 15 years, more autonomous taxis would be on the road than human-driven ones. Lyft has responded by spotlighting its Flexdrive fleet management subsidiary, signaling an intention to position itself as an infrastructure layer for AV fleets rather than purely a driver marketplace — a strategic pivot that does nothing for current drivers but may preserve the company itself.
Pricing: The Coming Inflection Point
Waymo Is More Expensive — But the Gap Is Closing Fast
The best data comes from Obi, a rideshare price aggregator that ran two large-scale studies in San Francisco comparing prices and wait times across the services. Here's how things stack up across the two studies:
April 2025 (90,000 ride offers analyzed):
Lyft offered the lowest average price at $14.44, Uber came in at $15.58, and Waymo averaged $20.43 — making Waymo 30–40% more expensive than its human-driver competitors. TechCrunch
November 2025–January 2026 (94,000 ride offers analyzed):
Waymo rides averaged $19.69, Uber averaged $17.47, and Lyft averaged $15.47. TechCrunch Waymo's premium over Uber had shrunk from 30–40% down to just 12.7%, and it was 27.3% more expensive than Lyft. SingularityHub
Per-Kilometer Rates (the most telling comparison):
On very short rides under 1.4 km, all three services are expensive per kilometer — but Waymo's shortest rides ran 41% pricier than Uber and 31% pricier than Lyft. That gap closes considerably on longer rides: for trips between 4.3 and 9.3 km, Lyft cost $2.60/km, Uber $2.90/km, and Waymo $3.50/km. TechCrunch For rides in that medium-distance range, Waymo was only 2% more expensive than Uber per kilometer. Automotive World
Peak Hours:
At peak times, a Waymo ride runs about $9.50 more than an Uber and roughly $11 more than a Lyft. At off-peak times like 5 a.m., the price gap narrows to just $1–$2. SlashGear
Wait Times:
Waymo's average wait time is 5.74 minutes, compared to Lyft's 4.20 minutes and Uber's 3.28 minutes. SingularityHub So Waymo is slower to arrive, though the gap is relatively modest.
The Wild Card — Tesla:
Tesla's robotaxi service in San Francisco — which still uses human safety monitors and lacks full driverless permits — averaged $8.17 per ride versus Lyft's $15.47, with a per-kilometer rate of $1.99 versus Waymo's $5.72. However, Tesla's average wait time was 15.32 minutes, roughly three times longer than its competitors. Automotive World
The Trend Line:
Waymo's new Zeekr-built "Ojai" vehicle is expected to have a lower upfront cost than the current Jaguar I-PACE fleet, which could allow Waymo to price more aggressively going forward. TechCrunch The Obi CEO noted that as novelty fades in established markets, competitive pressure on Waymo's pricing will only intensify — and Tesla's deeply discounted rides, if it can scale, could force the entire market downward.
The bottom line for San Diego: when Waymo launches here in mid-2026, riders should expect to pay a modest premium over Uber and Lyft — probably in the 10–20% range if the current trajectory holds — but with comparable wait times and, by the safety data, a meaningfully lower crash risk.
What Waymo Says:
Waymo currently prices its rides at approximate parity with or a slight premium over UberX and Lyft — a deliberate choice to avoid the predatory pricing cycles that characterized Uber and Lyft's own early years. But that is a strategic posture, not an economic necessity. Each Waymo vehicle costs roughly $200,000 to build, equip, and deploy, making price competition with human drivers currently unfeasible at scale. However, Waymo's upcoming partnership with Hyundai — which will supply purpose-built autonomous vehicle platforms — is expected to substantially reduce the bill-of-materials cost. Analysts anticipate more aggressive pricing by 2026 or 2027.
Tesla's robotaxi operations, tracked in San Francisco between November 2025 and January 2026, showed average fares of $8.17 versus Lyft's $15.47 — a 47% discount — with no surge pricing. If Tesla scales and sustains those prices, or if Waymo follows suit once its hardware costs fall, the economics for human rideshare drivers become structurally untenable in any market where autonomous vehicles operate at meaningful density.
"When [there] are another half dozen robotaxi companies approved in cities … and they all are competing for fares in congested areas, like airport arrivals, who will the mayors turn to to manage that?"
— State Sen. Dave Cortese (D-San Jose), April 2025
What San Diego Should Watch For
San Diego is neither San Francisco nor Phoenix. It is a sprawling, car-dependent city with a significant military population, a large tourism economy, a major international border crossing, and neighborhoods whose topography and street grids bear little resemblance to the flat grids Waymo first mastered. Waymo has already indicated that its initial operating zone will be concentrated downtown and in adjacent neighborhoods, with no immediate plans to serve La Jolla or the county's northern reaches. That geographic constraint will, at least initially, limit both the service's reach and its competitive impact on the broader local rideshare market.
But the initial footprint is rarely the final one. Waymo expanded from a small test zone in Phoenix to effectively the entire city. In San Francisco, it went from a waiting list to citywide service in under two years. San Diego's taxi advisory ecosystem — including the MTS, the United Taxi Workers of San Diego, and organizations representing Uber and Lyft drivers — has moved early, filing formal opposition and demanding local oversight before a single commercial passenger has ridden. Whether that opposition slows Waymo's rollout or merely documents it will depend on whether the state legislature provides cities with legal tools to act on their concerns.
The deeper tension is not really about Waymo. It is about who governs the public rights-of-way — streets built and maintained by tax dollars — and who decides how commercial transportation technology may use them. Waymo's safety data is genuinely impressive and deserves serious engagement, not dismissal. But safety performance and community accountability are not mutually exclusive demands. San Diego's drivers, first responders, senior residents, and elected officials deserve a seat at the table that state law has so far not provided them.
That table is still being built. SB 1246 is in committee. The California DMV's new AV regulations took effect in January 2026 but do not resolve the local-control question. And Waymo is scheduled to begin carrying San Diego passengers sometime in mid-2026 — ready or not.
Sources & Citations
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