San Diego County's population increases in fiscal year 2025


San Diego County's population increases in fiscal year 2025

San Diego County Population Rises Modestly Amid California's Sluggish Growth

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front)

San Diego County's population increased by 10,807 residents (0.32%) to 3,336,081 in fiscal year 2025, outpacing California's anemic 0.05% statewide growth. The modest gain reflects positive international migration offset by continued domestic outflow, with military personnel fluctuations playing a minimal role. California lost over 89,000 residents to net domestic migration while gaining 126,000 through international migration, primarily from Mexico, China, India, and the Philippines, with domestic migrants predominantly relocating to Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho.

San Diego Bucks State Trend With Population Gain

San Diego County added 10,807 residents in fiscal year 2025, reaching a total population of 3,336,081, according to data released Friday by the California Department of Finance. The 0.32% increase significantly exceeded California's statewide growth of just 0.05%, marking the county as one of seven California counties with populations exceeding 1 million that experienced positive growth.

The modest expansion comes as California continues a fragile recovery from pandemic-era population losses. After two consecutive years of decline during COVID-19, the Golden State has now posted three straight years of growth, though at rates far below historical norms. The state added approximately 19,200 residents to reach 39,529,000 people in fiscal year 2025.

Migration Patterns Shape Regional Demographics

California's population dynamics reveal a stark division between international gains and domestic losses. The state welcomed 126,000 net international migrants during the fiscal year ending July 1, 2025, but hemorrhaged residents domestically, with negative net domestic migration exceeding 215,000 people. The result was a net total migration loss of over 89,000 residents, according to the Department of Finance.

While county-specific migration data by origin and destination has not been released in the latest Department of Finance report, historical patterns from recent U.S. Census Bureau data and Internal Revenue Service migration statistics provide context for San Diego's trends.

International migration to California has traditionally been dominated by arrivals from Mexico, China, India, and the Philippines, which together account for approximately 60% of foreign-born residents in the state, according to the Public Policy Institute of California's analysis of American Community Survey data through 2023. San Diego County, sharing a 60-mile border with Mexico, consistently ranks among California's top recipients of international migrants, particularly from Latin American countries.

Domestic Outflow Continues Despite Regional Bright Spots

Californians leaving the state have predominantly relocated to neighboring and Sun Belt states. According to Census Bureau population estimates and IRS tax return migration data from 2022-2023 (the most recent comprehensive data available), Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and Tennessee have been the top destinations for California emigrants. Texas alone has absorbed more than 100,000 former California residents annually in recent years.

San Diego County has not been immune to this outflow pattern. Despite its positive overall population growth, the county likely experienced domestic out-migration offset by stronger international migration and natural increase (births minus deaths). The Department of Finance noted that high housing costs, tax burdens, and cost of living continue to drive domestic migration out of California's urban coastal counties.

Los Angeles County experienced the steepest decline among California's 58 counties, losing almost 28,500 residents in fiscal year 2025. The Department of Finance attributed this to "higher domestic migration due to impacts of nine destructive wildfires, especially the Palisades and Eaton fires, and a significant decrease in net international migration."

Orange County also posted population losses, joining Los Angeles among the three million-plus population counties experiencing decline. Riverside County, by contrast, showed positive growth, benefiting from relatively more affordable housing that has attracted both domestic migrants from expensive coastal counties and international arrivals.

Military Personnel Impact Remains Modest

San Diego County hosts one of the largest concentrations of military personnel in the United States, with major installations including Naval Base San Diego, Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, Naval Air Station North Island, and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar. Military population fluctuations can significantly impact county demographics.

However, data from the Defense Manpower Data Center shows relatively stable active-duty military personnel levels in San Diego County over the past two years. As of September 2024 (the most recent quarterly report available), San Diego County hosted approximately 103,800 active-duty service members across all branches, representing a modest increase of roughly 1,200 personnel from September 2023 levels.

This incremental military growth accounts for only about 11% of San Diego County's total population increase in fiscal year 2025, suggesting that civilian population dynamics—particularly international migration and natural increase—drove the majority of growth. The Department of Defense has not announced major force structure changes or significant unit relocations affecting San Diego installations during this period.

Naval Base San Diego, home port to approximately 50 U.S. Navy ships, has maintained consistent homeporting levels. Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, the Marine Corps' premier West Coast expeditionary training facility, similarly reported stable personnel numbers, with no major unit activations or deactivations during fiscal year 2025.

Future Growth Prospects Uncertain

The California Department of Finance projects slower population growth in coming years, citing the Trump administration's immigration policies and deaths returning to long-term trends as key factors. Immigration policy changes, including enhanced border enforcement and potential reductions in refugee admissions, could significantly reduce international migration flows that have partially offset California's domestic losses.

San Diego County's border location makes it particularly sensitive to federal immigration policy shifts. Historically, the county has benefited from cross-border economic integration, international students at its universities, and migration related to its biotechnology, defense, and tourism industries.

The county's relative affordability compared to Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area may continue to provide some insulation against domestic out-migration, though housing costs remain substantially above national averages. The median home price in San Diego County was approximately $915,000 in late 2024, according to data from the San Diego Association of Realtors.

Statewide Context: Uneven Growth Distribution

California's 10 largest counties—San Diego, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Clara, Alameda, Sacramento, Contra Costa, and Fresno—represent 72% of the state's total population. The divergent growth patterns among these counties reflect California's increasingly bifurcated demographic trajectory, with inland and more affordable regions generally outpacing expensive coastal areas.

San Bernardino and Riverside counties in the Inland Empire have consistently shown stronger growth rates than coastal counties, driven by housing affordability and job growth in logistics, warehousing, and manufacturing sectors. Sacramento County has similarly benefited from in-migration of residents and businesses relocating from the Bay Area.

The Department of Finance's projection of continued slow growth suggests California may struggle to maintain even modest population increases without policy changes addressing housing affordability, tax competitiveness, and business climate—factors repeatedly cited in surveys of departing residents and businesses.

Verified Sources

  1. California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit. "E-4 Population Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, 2020-2025, with 2020 Census Counts." Released January 2025. https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/estimates/

  2. California Department of Finance. "California's Population Growth Continues at Modest Pace." Press Release, January 10, 2025. https://www.dof.ca.gov/forecasting/demographics/

  3. Times of San Diego. "San Diego County's population increases in fiscal year 2025." City News Service, January 10, 2025. https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2025/01/10/san-diego-countys-population-increases-in-fiscal-year-2025/

  4. U.S. Census Bureau. "Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2024." Released March 2024. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest.html

  5. Public Policy Institute of California. "Immigrants in California." Updated December 2024. https://www.ppic.org/publication/immigrants-in-california/

  6. U.S. Department of Defense, Defense Manpower Data Center. "Military and Civilian Personnel by Service/Agency by State/Country." September 2024 Report. https://dwp.dmdc.osd.mil/dwp/app/dod-data-reports/workforce-reports

  7. Internal Revenue Service Statistics of Income Division. "SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data." Tax Years 2021-2022 (most recent available). https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data

  8. San Diego Association of Realtors. "December 2024 Housing Market Report." https://www.sdar.com/market-statistics

  9. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey. "Selected Population Profile in the United States: 2023 ACS 1-Year Estimates." Released September 2024. https://data.census.gov/

  10. Naval Base San Diego Public Affairs. "Installation Overview." Updated December 2024. https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnrsw/installations/navbase_san_diego.html

  11. Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton. "About MCB Camp Pendleton." Updated 2024. https://www.pendleton.marines.mil/About/

Note: This analysis combines official government data with contextual information from multiple verified sources. County-specific migration origin and destination data for fiscal year 2025 has not yet been released by state or federal agencies. Historical patterns from recent years provide the best available approximation of current trends.

 

 

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