California's Wide-Open Governor Race:

A Crowded Field Vies to Succeed Newsom

BLUF (Bottom Line Up Front): The 2026 California gubernatorial race features more than 20 declared candidates competing to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, with no clear frontrunner emerging six months before the June primary. Democrats Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, Tom Steyer, and Eric Swalwell lead a crowded field on the left, while Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco hope to end the GOP's nearly two-decade statewide losing streak. Recent polling shows extreme volatility with 38-44% of voters undecided, and the top-two primary system could produce an unpredictable general election matchup.

The Democratic Scramble

Former Vice President Kamala Harris announced in November 2025 that she would not seek California's governorship, leaving the Democratic field without its presumptive frontrunner. An August 2025 Emerson College poll found former Representative Katie Porter leading the Democratic primary with 18% support, though subsequent October polling showed her support declining to 15-16% after videos surfaced of tense interactions with journalists and staff.

Porter, who represented Orange County in Congress from 2019 to 2025 before an unsuccessful Senate bid, formally launched her gubernatorial campaign in March 2025. Her announcement video emphasized her independence from corporate interests and pledged to resist President Trump's policies affecting Californians. Porter has championed housing affordability issues, blaming Wall Street for California's housing crisis and supporting increased federal investment. She has secured major labor endorsements including the Amalgamated Transit Union, EMILY's List, and the National Union of Healthcare Workers.

Xavier Becerra, who served as U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary under President Biden and previously as California Attorney General, announced his candidacy in April 2025. During his tenure as Attorney General, Becerra sued the Trump administration more than 120 times on issues ranging from healthcare to environmental policy, and led the successful defense of the Affordable Care Act before the Supreme Court. As HHS Secretary, Becerra negotiated prescription drug price reductions for Medicare, achieving discounts of 38-79% on ten high-cost medications including Eliquis and Jardiance, which would have saved Medicare $6 billion in 2023. Becerra positions himself as "the health care governor" and has pledged to fight Trump administration cuts to Medicare and Medicaid funding that threaten California's healthcare infrastructure.

Antonio Villaraigosa, who served as Los Angeles Mayor from 2005 to 2013 and as California Assembly Speaker from 1998 to 2000, announced his second gubernatorial bid in July 2024. During his time as Assembly Speaker, Villaraigosa worked with Republicans to balance state budgets with record investments in education and public safety, creating $13 billion in budget surplus funds. As Los Angeles Mayor, he founded the Mayor's Partnership for Los Angeles Schools, which took control of the district's lowest-performing schools and eventually achieved some of the largest performance gains in the state. Villaraigosa has criticized current state policies on crime accountability, business support, and energy, advocating for an "all of the above" strategy on energy that includes natural gas as a transitional fuel.

Billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer entered the race in November 2025, making affordability his central campaign theme. Steyer, who founded the San Francisco-based hedge fund Farallon Capital before retiring to focus on activism, established NextGen America in 2013 to empower young voters on climate change and progressive causes. In his announcement video, Steyer promised to lower electric bills, build millions of new homes, make preschool and community college free, and ban corporate PAC money in state elections while raising taxes on corporations. Steyer unsuccessfully ran for president in 2020, spending more than $317 million of his own money before dropping out ahead of Super Tuesday.

Representative Eric Swalwell announced his candidacy in November 2025, positioning himself as a "fighter and protector" who would tackle California's affordability crisis while defending the state from Trump administration policies. Swalwell gained national prominence during Trump's first term when he served as a House manager for the former president's second impeachment trial. The former Alameda County prosecutor represents California's 14th Congressional District in the East Bay and briefly ran for president in 2020 on a platform focused on reducing gun violence.

Other Democratic candidates include Tony Thurmond, California's State Superintendent of Public Instruction; Betty Yee, former State Controller and current Democratic Party Vice Chair; and Ian Calderon, former California Assembly Majority Leader.

The Republican Challenge

Conservative commentator Steve Hilton announced his gubernatorial campaign in April 2025, becoming a major Republican contender after hosting a show on Fox News for six years. Hilton, who was born in the United Kingdom and served as a senior advisor to former British Prime Minister David Cameron, co-founded Crowdpac.com after moving to California in 2012. His platform promises to reduce taxes for workers earning under $75,000 by eliminating state income tax for this bracket, which would remove 7.1 million households from paying state income tax. Hilton also pledges to protect Proposition 13, reduce government spending to pre-pandemic levels, and ensure 100% of students meet state math and English standards.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco announced his candidacy in February 2025, becoming the first major Republican to enter the race. Bianco, first elected sheriff in 2018 and reelected in 2022 with approximately 60% of the vote, has been affiliated with the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officers Association. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Bianco refused to enforce Governor Newsom's lockdown orders and declined to apologize for his brief affiliation with the far-right Oath Keepers militia. Bianco's platform criticizes Democratic policies for high taxes, homelessness, and the state's high cost of living, and he pledges to work to overturn California's sanctuary law restricting local law enforcement cooperation with federal immigration authorities.

The Polling Landscape

The race remains remarkably fluid with no candidate consolidating significant support. An August 2025 Emerson College poll found Porter at 18%, Hilton at 12%, Bianco at 7%, and Villaraigosa at 5%, with 38% of voters undecided. By October 2025, another Emerson poll showed Hilton narrowly leading with 16%, followed by Porter at 15% and Bianco at 11%. A November 2025 UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found 44% of surveyed voters without a preference for governor, with no candidate polling above 15%.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Porter leads among voters over 50, those with postgraduate degrees, and white voters. The October polling also revealed mixed favorability ratings: U.S. Senator Alex Padilla, who declined to run, had the highest favorability at 40%, while Porter's favorability stood at just 26%, with 35% holding unfavorable views.

The Electoral Mechanics

California's gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, with a nonpartisan top-two primary scheduled for June 2, 2026. Under this system, all candidates compete on the same ballot regardless of party, and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election. Republicans have not won a statewide race in California since 2006 and have not held statewide office since Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.

In the 2022 elections, no Republican candidate for statewide office came within 10 percentage points of victory, with most losing by approximately twice that margin. Democratic political consultant Andrew Acosta suggested that Republicans closely tied to President Trump are unlikely to overcome deep anti-Trump sentiment in the California electorate, despite substantive problems conservatives could campaign on.

Key Campaign Issues

Affordability dominates the campaign discourse across party lines. California faces punishing housing and grocery prices along with some of the nation's highest gas and utility costs, creating what candidates describe as an affordability crisis. Hilton points to California having the highest housing costs and worst business climate in America, the highest prices for gas and electricity, and nearly a million Californians lacking access to clean drinking water.

Healthcare policy features prominently, particularly in light of potential Trump administration cuts to federal programs and ongoing battles over prescription drug costs and insurance coverage. Candidates are also emphasizing their positions on resisting Trump administration policies, from immigration enforcement to disaster relief and healthcare funding.

Proposition 50, Governor Newsom's controversial congressional redistricting plan approved by voters in a November 2025 special election, divided gubernatorial candidates along partisan lines and highlighted tensions over partisan manipulation of electoral maps. The measure, aimed at sending more Democrats to Congress by redrawing five districts, sparked debate about whether fighting partisan gerrymandering with more partisan gerrymandering sets a dangerous precedent.

The Path Forward

With Newsom termed out and prominent figures like Harris and Senator Padilla declining to run, the race represents California's most wide-open gubernatorial contest in recent memory. Political observers note that low name recognition across the board gives both established politicians and wealthy outsiders opportunities to break through with sufficient resources and compelling messages.

The 2026 midterms, in which Democratic anger at the Trump administration could produce an even more liberal electorate, present a difficult political environment for California Republicans seeking to end their statewide losing streak. However, the crowded Democratic field combined with California's unique primary structure creates scenarios where Republican candidates could advance to the general election by consolidating conservative support while Democrats split their votes.

With six months remaining before the primary, California voters face an unprecedented choice among more than 20 candidates, each promising to address the state's affordability crisis while charting dramatically different paths for the nation's most populous state and world's fifth-largest economy.

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