North County San Diego Housing Crisis Deepens:

Working Families Face Mass Exodus as Affordability Gap Widens

Updated analysis reveals record displacement patterns and new policy responses across the region

NORTH COUNTY, SAN DIEGO — An unprecedented housing affordability crisis is forcing working- and middle-class families to abandon North County San Diego in record numbers, creating what local officials describe as an economic and cultural emergency that threatens the region's long-term viability.

New data from 2025 reveals the scope of the displacement crisis has reached critical levels. The median price for a single-family home in San Diego County is around $1 million, and it has been holding steady or rising slightly year-over-year, while annual household income needed to qualify for a mortgage on a mid-tier California home in June 2025 was about $237,000—over 2 times the median California household income in 2023 ($96,500).

The Human Cost of Displacement

The story of the Oceanside family driving nearly an hour from Fallbrook each morning so their children can stay in familiar schools has become emblematic of a broader regional crisis. Recent research shows that in 2022, 71,051 people lived in one North County city while working in another — significantly higher than the 49,979 who both lived and worked in the same North County city, according to the San Diego North Economic Development Council.

"Beyond people being displaced from our community, we're also seeing a lot of those people fall into homelessness," said Oceanside Deputy Mayor Eric Joyce. "Any family who's paying more than 30 percent of their income to rent is vulnerable. One car breaking down, one hospital bill – it often takes one thing for these families to be in danger of losing everything."

The displacement patterns are now well-documented. San Diego is at the forefront of California's affordable housing crisis, and California is at the forefront of a national housing shortage, with a recent report from Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies found that over 12 million households were spending more than half of their income on rent.

Record-High Housing Costs Drive Crisis

The latest data paints a stark picture of unaffordability. Twelve percent of county households could afford to buy the $1.01 million median-priced home in the third quarter of this year, while a minimum annual income of $253,600 was needed to make monthly payments of $6,340, including principal, interest and taxes on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at a 6.63% interest rate.

In 2023, almost every North County city saw 40 to 55 percent of households spending more than 35 percent of their income on rent — well above the recommended 30 percent threshold. According to SANDAG's Anti-Displacement Study, this "lack of affordable rental supply and increasingly out-of-reach rent prices lead to unstable housing situations and rent burden, especially among lower-income residents."

San Diego was now the nation's third-highest-priced rental market, just behind New York and San Jose, with individual stories illustrating the human impact. One healthcare worker recently separated from her husband now pays $2,000 monthly for a small one-bedroom unit without an oven, while similar units on the open market rent for $3,300.

Policy Responses and Local Action

Oceanside is leading regional efforts to address the crisis through landmark tenant protection measures. In April 2025, the city council considered its first rent stabilization ordinance, which would have been the first of its kind in San Diego County. However, major sticking points were a 5% rent increase cap and increasing rent stabilization (landlords covering relocation costs) from one month to two months or three months for seniors and the disabled. Those were defeated and will not be part of the new ordinances moving forward.

Despite the setbacks, the proposals, set to be introduced at the April 9 City Council meeting, aim to address rising displacement rates in the region, with supporters maintaining that "this isn't about making it impossible for landlords to manage their properties. It is simply about balance".

The city has taken other steps to preserve housing stock. Ordinance 24-OR0844-1 went into effect February 10, 2024, and prohibits new non-hosted STRs outside of the Coastal Zone, helping convert short-term rentals back to long-term housing.

State and County Progress

At the regional level, San Diego County reports progress on state-mandated housing goals. The County is 84% of the way to meeting its goal of 6,700 total units over an eight-year period (2021-2029), with 5,645 housing units receiving permits, and 4,500 additional homes "moving through the pipeline".

However, challenges remain in producing affordable units specifically. Del Mar has to make way for 113 affordable housing units to meet its Housing Element goals, while Encinitas has to make way for 838 low-income units, according to its approved Housing Element.

Market Dynamics and Future Outlook

Recent market data shows the median sold price of an existing single-family home in San Diego County was $1,025,000 in June 2025. This is a 2.4% decrease from May's price of $1,050,000, and 2.8% down from June 2024 ($1,054,180), suggesting some price moderation.

However, rental demand continues to rise, driven by constrained housing supply, population inflows, and elevated mortgage rates that are delaying homeownership for many residents. Vacancy rates in San Diego remain low, currently at approximately 4.0%, down from 4.3% in 2024.

Solutions and Expert Recommendations

Housing experts and local officials offer different perspectives on solutions. Erik Bruvold from SDNEDC advocates for increased density: "Condos, apartments, attached homes – that kind of housing development is the way to meet the needs of middle-income North County residents." He argues that jurisdictions need to ease restrictions on parking minimums, elevator requirements, and setbacks to reduce construction costs.

Deputy Mayor Joyce takes a different approach, calling for public housing and stronger affordability requirements: "We can't just build our way out of this. If we build all high-rise, expensive housing, that's not going to solve the issue. If we're going to have a chance of building housing at a lower cost, it needs to be done without the mindset of maximizing profit."

Long-term Implications

The housing crisis's broader economic impacts are becoming clear. Bruvold warns that without adequate housing production, "people delaying having children — which will lead to decreased school enrollment — and people spending less at small businesses and restaurants, causing a broader economic impact."

Joyce frames the issue in cultural terms: "If all local governments do not act, we will be losing the working-class members of our communities who carry the history and so much of the deep roots of our culture through economic displacement. North County will lose its living memory of its history."

As North County looks toward the next 20 years, the question remains whether coordinated policy action can reverse displacement trends and preserve the region's economic and cultural diversity.

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Sources

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21. Can North County Keep Working- And Middle-Class Families From Leaving? | Voice of San Diego