UCSD postpones plans to set 10-story building on fire in Scripps Ranch – San Diego Union-Tribune

Scientists will set fire to a 10-story building at UC San Diego’s outdoor shake table in Scripps Ranch. (Erik Jepsen / UC San Diego Jacobs School of Engineering)

UCSD Postpones Groundbreaking Fire Experiment on 10-Story Building in Scripps Ranch

University delays pioneering post-earthquake fire research due to fire department staffing shortage

July 16, 2025 - San Diego, CA

UC San Diego has temporarily postponed plans to set a 10-story building on fire in a controlled scientific experiment that was scheduled for Wednesday morning, marking a delay in what would be groundbreaking research into how fires spread through tall structures after earthquakes.

The university announced Tuesday that it made the decision to postpone after learning that a San Diego Fire Department unit would not be available to provide emergency standby support during the experiment, which was set to begin shortly before 9 a.m. at UCSD's outdoor earthquake shake table facility in Scripps Ranch.

The test is expected to be rescheduled by the end of July and will produce smoke visible to rush-hour commuters on Interstates 15 and 805 when it eventually takes place.

Research Aims to Prevent Future Fire Disasters

The experiment is part of an innovative research project led by Professor Richard Emberley from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, in collaboration with UCSD structural engineering professor Tara Hutchinson, one of the nation's most experienced shake-table scientists.

The planned fire test would involve setting a controlled blaze on the ninth floor of the steel-framed building to study how fire moves both vertically and horizontally through drywall-paneled rooms. Researchers are particularly interested in understanding fire behavior in structures that have been damaged by earthquakes, a phenomenon known as "fire-following earthquakes."

"We hope that we can let the fire burn itself out (in the building), and then we can even maybe record the data even longer than that into the cooling phase," said Emberley during a briefing.

The research takes on special significance given the historical precedent of major earthquakes triggering widespread fires. Such shaking was responsible for dozens of the fires that erupted during the magnitude-6.7 Northridge earthquake in 1994. That temblor in the San Fernando Valley killed nearly 60 people and caused more than $20 billion in damage. About 110 fires have been attributed directly to the effects of this earthquake, with many caused by broken gas lines from houses shifting off their foundations or unsecured water heaters tumbling.

Extreme Fire Conditions Heighten Safety Concerns

The postponement comes during one of California's most dangerous fire seasons in recent memory. Fire potential across California is expected to increase steadily through summer, with both North and South Operations forecasting above-normal large fire activity by July and August. As of July 15, 2025, a total of 4,195 fires have burned 201,295 acres across the state.

San Diego County remains under extreme wildfire threat, as recent rains have done little to lift the region out of drought. Last month was the 13th driest January since 1895, creating conditions that, when mixed with Santa Ana winds, can quickly spread embers. In Southern California specifically, high grass fuel loads and drying conditions have raised the risk for large fires across fuel types, including timber and coastal grasses.

The experiment's location in Scripps Ranch adds complexity to safety planning. 98% of Scripps Ranch is classified as a Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone, making it one of the most fire-prone areas in San Diego County. The community has painful experience with wildfire - the Cedar fire destroyed hundreds of homes in October 2003.

Fire Suppression Challenges and Building Safety Systems

Critics question whether SDFD units would be adequate to control a high-rise fire, particularly if Santa Ana winds were to develop during the experiment. High-rise fires are typically controlled using internal building systems rather than external fire department resources. Standard firefighting for tall structures relies on standpipes—vertical pipes with hose connections on each floor—that allow firefighters to access water pressure from within the building rather than attempting to pump water up from ground level.

The details of the experimental building's fire suppression systems have not been disclosed by UCSD. Typical high-rise fire protection includes automatic sprinkler systems, standpipe systems for firefighter access, fire department connections, and fire pumps to maintain adequate water pressure. Without these internal systems, external fire department resources would face significant limitations in controlling a fire on the ninth floor of a 10-story structure, especially during windy conditions.

History of "Controlled" Burns Gone Wrong

California has an unfortunate history of prescribed burns escaping control. A study of escaped prescribed fires in California from 1991 to 2020 found that the months close to the beginning and end of wildfire season—May, June, September, and November—have the highest frequency of escaped fires.

Most notably, the Calf Canyon prescribed fire, conducted in January 2022, subsequently reignited and escaped in April 2022, becoming one of New Mexico's largest wildfires in recorded history. In the same year, a U.S. Forest Service prescribed burn in New Mexico escaped control and became the devastating Hermits Peak Fire, destroying hundreds of homes and costing approximately $100 million in suppression efforts. This led to a 90-day suspension of all prescribed fire activities nationwide.

More recently, concerns about prescribed burn safety led the U.S. Forest Service to halt all prescribed burning in California "for the foreseeable future" in October 2024, citing insufficient personnel to respond if prescribed fires escaped containment. As one forest management expert noted, "Should we have an escaped fire, and this is a very real possibility with the unpredictable weather we are experiencing, we do not have the capability to respond with additional resources."

While statistical data shows that controlled burns rarely escape—the U.S. Forest Service reported 99.84% of prescribed fires go as planned in 2022—the consequences of the small percentage that do escape can be catastrophic, particularly during extreme weather conditions like those currently affecting Southern California.

Recent Research on Post-Earthquake Fire Challenges

Recent research has highlighted the complex challenges of fighting fires in high-rise buildings after earthquakes, particularly when internal fire suppression systems are damaged. Studies published in fire science journals show that post-earthquake fires (PEF) present unique risks because earthquake damage can compromise the very systems designed to control fires.

A 2024 study on post-earthquake fire scenarios found that when sprinkler systems are damaged by seismic activity, "their ability to suppress fire will be weakened dramatically." The research noted that earthquake damage to non-structural components like sprinkler systems, suspended ceilings, and water supply infrastructure creates cascading failures that make fire suppression exponentially more difficult.

Critical infrastructure vulnerabilities include:

• Water supply disruption: Earthquakes commonly break water mains and damage pressure-maintaining systems, leaving standpipes and sprinkler systems without adequate water pressure
• Sprinkler system damage: Seismic movement can damage fire sprinkler risers and pipe connections, particularly at building joints where differential movement occurs
• Standpipe system failure: The vertical pipes that firefighters rely on for water access can be damaged by building movement, leaving upper floors inaccessible to water-based suppression
• Fire pump damage: Seismic activity can damage the pumps that maintain water pressure in high-rise fire suppression systems

Research published in the International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials found that the fire resistance of earthquake-damaged buildings is "considerably lower than in intact components," with damaged structures showing significantly reduced ability to sustain loads during fire exposure.

A framework study using Building Information Modeling (BIM) to simulate post-earthquake fires in a 28-story building concluded that when fire suppression systems are compromised, "it takes around 400-600 seconds for different floors to fill up with smoke and toxic gases," and that buildings often "cannot meet a guaranteed evacuation plan" under these conditions.

The research emphasizes that current building codes largely ignore the risk of post-earthquake fires, with most standards designed for either earthquake or fire scenarios independently, not the cascading failure of both hazards occurring sequentially.

Leading Researchers in Earthquake and Fire Science

Professor Richard Emberley brings specialized expertise to this project as both a mechanical engineering professor and fire protection engineering specialist at Cal Poly. His research encompasses self-extinction of timber, compartment fire dynamics of exposed and protection timber structures, debonding of engineered timber, visibility in smoke filled environments, and novel fire testing methodologies. He was recently named one of the "5 Under 35" SFPE (Society of Fire Protection Engineers) Emerging Professionals.

Professor Tara Hutchinson, who holds a Ph.D. in Civil (Structural & Geotechnical) Engineering from UC Davis (2001), has been a leading figure in earthquake engineering research for over two decades. She was a recipient of the National Science Foundation Career award in 2004 and serves on multiple professional boards in earthquake engineering.

Cutting-Edge Earthquake Research at UCSD

The fire experiment represents the latest chapter in UCSD's distinguished history of earthquake research at its Englekirk Structural Engineering Center. This outdoor earthquake simulator can shake structures weighing up to 2,000 metric tons, or 4.5 million pounds—roughly the weight of 1,300 sedan-sized cars, making it capable of carrying the heaviest test structures in the world.

The facility recently completed testing of several record-breaking structures, including a 10-story mass timber building in 2023—the tallest full-scale building ever to be constructed and tested on an earthquake simulator—and a 10-story cold-formed steel building in 2025. Results from the steel building showed exceptional performance, with Professor Hutchinson noting, "Despite 18 earthquake tests of increasing intensity—including three very large at and above what design engineers must consider in designing a building–the load-bearing structural system retained its integrity."

The shake table operates as part of NSF's Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure network (NHERI)—eight experimental facilities supporting innovative research for mitigating damage caused by earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, wind storms, storm surge and flooding.

"Our UC San Diego earthquake simulator is truly a national treasure that is a resource to structural and geotechnical engineers. It is one of very few sites around the world capable of conducting the types of seismic experiments necessary to validate the design and construction of earthquake-safe structures," said John McCartney, professor of structural engineering at the UC San Diego Jacobs School of Engineering.

Broader Research Implications

Researchers are studying how fire moves vertically and horizontally in drywall-paneled rooms. It's the type of research that can lead to changes in building codes.

The work is part of a larger trend in fire protection research, including Cal Poly's establishment of the Cal Poly Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) FIRE Institute, which focuses on research into wildfires and risk reduction strategies in areas where natural environments meet built environments.

UCSD has also recently launched the Wildfire Science & Technology Commons, demonstrating the university's commitment to addressing California's growing wildfire challenges through scientific research and technological innovation.

Looking Forward

When the fire experiment does take place later this month, it will provide critical data for understanding how fires behave in earthquake-damaged buildings. This research could ultimately lead to improved building codes and fire safety protocols that could save lives and property in future seismic events.

The postponement, while disappointing to researchers, underscores the importance of maintaining proper safety protocols even during controlled scientific experiments, particularly during California's dangerous fire season.

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UCSD postpones plans to set 10-story building on fire in Scripps Ranch – San Diego Union-Tribune