Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Creates Winners and Losers Across San Diego County

Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' Creates Winners and Losers Across San Diego County

Federal tax and spending legislation brings billions to defense contractors and tax cuts for wealthy, while cutting safety net programs for hundreds of thousands of residents

President Donald Trump signed the massive "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" into law on July 4, 2025, delivering what supporters call the largest tax cuts in history while critics warn of devastating impacts on social safety net programs. For San Diego County, the 870-page legislation creates a complex web of winners and losers that will reshape the region's economy and social services landscape.

Military and Defense Contractors See Major Gains

The legislation provides tens of billions in funding for shipbuilding and unmanned naval systems, which could significantly benefit Naval Base San Diego and local defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and General Atomics. The Defense Department receives $25 billion for the development of the Golden Dome missile defense system, positioning San Diego's military-industrial complex for substantial growth.

San Diego is home to the largest collection of U.S. military assets in the world, particularly naval assets, making the region well-positioned to capitalize on the federal investment in defense infrastructure.

Wealthy Taxpayers Benefit from Permanent Tax Cuts

The legislation contains about $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, making the existing tax rates and brackets permanent. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the richest 5 percent of taxpayers nationwide will get the largest income boost from the bill. Those taxpayers are over-represented in San Diego County, where they make up roughly 10 percent of all filers.

Key provisions include permanently bumping the child tax credit to $2,200 starting in 2025, lifting the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000, and creating new "Trump accounts" with a one-time $1,000 federal deposit for children born between 2025-2028.

Safety Net Programs Face Unprecedented Cuts

The legislation's most controversial provisions target programs serving San Diego County's most vulnerable residents. The bill cuts federal support for Medicaid (Medi-Cal in California) by an estimated 18 percent, and SNAP (CalFresh in California) by an estimated 20 percent.

In San Diego County, 880,000 residents are enrolled in Medi-Cal, and more than 400,000 receive CalFresh assistance. The region receives nearly $13 billion per year in Medi-Cal funding, second in the state behind Los Angeles County.

Work Requirements Create New Hurdles

About 350,000 San Diego County residents would be affected by new work requirements that mandate adults who qualified for Medi-Cal coverage through ACA expansion prove they have at least 80 hours of "community engagement" per month. The requirements define engagement as work, community service, educational program enrollment, or a combination of those categories.

County Government Prepares for $286 Million Budget Impact

San Diego County officials are bracing for significant financial impacts. Changes to Medicaid, food stamps and more proposed in the legislation would put San Diego County on the hook for at least $286 million a year to keep those services going and comply with new federal rules.

Currently, the federal government covers the cost of SNAP, but if the bill's provisions take effect, certain counties would have to shoulder 25%. That change would cost San Diego County $226 million, plus about $50 million in related administrative costs.

The San Diego County Board of Supervisors has taken proactive steps to address the impending changes. In June, supervisors passed two measures to prepare for potential federal cuts, including directing staff to prepare a strategy to respond to over $250 million in additional costs and allocating $500,000 to the San Diego Food Bank.

Healthcare Providers Brace for Revenue Losses

Local healthcare institutions face significant challenges under the new law. In 2023, Medi-Cal accounted for more than half of revenues at Rady Children's Hospital, and roughly two-thirds of patients at Family Health Centers of San Diego were Medi-Cal enrollees.

"Today will go down as one of the most tragic acts of government, as this vote does more than cut funding to Medicaid — it will directly result in the loss of health care for millions and will jeopardize the health and safety of people across the country," said Dr. Shannon Udovic-Constant, president of the California Medical Association.

Food Retailers and Grocery Stores Feel Economic Impact

San Diego County residents received $890 million in CalFresh benefits in 2024, which they redeemed at 2,300 participating grocery stores county-wide. The food retailers suffering the largest hits to their bottom lines will likely be those located in lower-income communities.

Clean Energy Sector Faces Rollbacks

The bill largely rolls back federal subsidies in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act that aimed to boost clean energy provision. San Diego is home to hundreds of cleantech companies—utilities like SDG&E, manufacturers like Solar Turbines, and R&D organizations like Scripps Institution of Oceanography—that had benefited from the IRA's push to accelerate clean energy production.

The sweeping bill ends the $7,500 credit for buying an electric car passed as part of former President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.

Immigration Enforcement Expansion

The bill funds a several-fold increase in the budget for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), including money for more ICE agents and expanded immigrant detention and removal capacity, with goals to deport some 1 million people per year.

More than half of immigrants arrested by ICE in San Diego and Imperial counties in 2025 had no criminal charges or convictions, and that share has been increasing in recent months.

Congressional Delegation Opposition

The bill passed both chambers of Congress with no Democrats voting in favor, including California's two senators and four of San Diego County's five representatives (Republican Rep. Darrell Issa supported the bill).

"Medicaid is a lifeline for 1 in 6 people in San Diego County," said Rep. Sara Jacobs during a speaking event at Rady Children's Hospital. "Yet, Republicans in Congress are pushing to cut at least $880 billion from Medicaid — sacrificing people's lives and our economic security in the process".

Economic Projections and Long-term Impact

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will increase annual federal deficits by $3.4 trillion between 2025 and 2034. The wealthiest households would see a $12,000 increase from the legislation, which would cost the poorest people $1,600 a year, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office analysis.

As San Diego County grapples with these sweeping changes, state and local governments, businesses, and residents will be left dealing with the many ways in which the legislation accelerates a new, more antagonistic relationship with Washington, D.C.

The full impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will unfold over the coming months as federal agencies implement new regulations and local governments adjust their budgets and services to accommodate the dramatic shift in federal policy priorities.

Sources

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  2. Associated Press. "What's in the tax and spending bill that Trump has signed into law." AP News, July 2025. https://apnews.com/article/what-is-republican-trump-tax-bill-f65be44e1050431a601320197322551b
  3. Tax Foundation. "Trump Tax Cuts 2025: Budget Reconciliation." Tax Foundation, July 2025. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/
  4. U.S. Congress. "Text - H.R.1 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): One Big Beautiful Bill Act." Congress.gov, 2025. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text
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DC Explained: San Diego’s (Many) Losers, Winners from Washington’s New Tax and Spending Bill | Voice of San Diego

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