Aerial view of Otay Ranch Village 13

Controversial San Diego Development Proceeds Despite Wildfire Concerns

A major housing development in southeastern San Diego County has cleared a significant legal hurdle despite being located in an area prone to wildfires, raising questions about development practices in the face of climate change.

The 450-acre development, known as Otay Ranch Village 13, will include up to 2,750 new housing units along with a fire station and elementary school. The project received approval from the San Diego County Board of Supervisors in 2020, but faced legal challenges from environmental groups concerned about wildlife, greenhouse gas emissions, and fire safety.

A settlement reached last month between the developer, Baldwin & Sons, and environmental groups has been described as "a win for all sides." The agreement reduces the development's footprint by 40% while creating an opportunity for more housing units than originally planned.

The fire safety concerns are particularly relevant given that the proposed site is just north of where the Border 2 fire consumed more than 6,600 acres earlier this year. Climate change has led to warmer, drier conditions and longer fire seasons according to national climate studies, making development in such areas increasingly risky.

Fire Safety Measures

The settlement includes several measures aimed at reducing wildfire risk, though some environmentalists question whether these will be sufficient long-term. Van Collinsworth, director of Preserve Wild Santee, one of the parties involved in the settlement, noted that the site offers "unique advantages" for preventing and fighting wildfires, including proximity to the Lower Otay Reservoir.

The agreement calls for fire surveillance systems and exterior sprinkler systems to be installed throughout the development. Other provisions include:

Net-zero energy design for all single-family residential and commercial buildings
Fully electric buildings
At least $15 million toward local greenhouse gas mitigation
Addition of 300 acres of open space for habitat preservation

Environmental Concerns

The original lawsuit was filed by a coalition of environmental nonprofits, later supported by the California Attorney General, challenging the location of thousands of new residents in an area that has been impacted by wildfires and is home to endangered and threatened wildlife species.

Peter Broderick, a senior attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, stated, "For future development projects in California... we just shouldn't be pushing new, low-density developments into wildfire-prone areas." However, he acknowledged that the mitigation measures make this "a better project than what the county approved."

Housing Needs vs. Environmental Protection

The developer, Nick Lee, CEO of Baldwin & Sons, expressed gratitude that they "will be able to achieve our housing goals while delivering a village that provides additional preservation of environmental resources and is built to standards that address the realities of climate change." Lee hopes the development can serve as "a model for how we can meet the region's housing needs while also being good environmental stewards."

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, celebrating the settlement, emphasized that officials must account for wildfire risks when planning development. "From Los Angeles to San Diego, we are seeing devastating wildfires ravaging our communities right before our eyes. We can no longer ignore the realities of climate change," Bonta said. The settlement "recognizes that environmental protection and housing go hand in hand, aiming to create more resilient, sustainable homes while reducing wildfire risk and protecting our environment."

The development is still years away from breaking ground. After permitting and planning, the developer anticipates at least three years before construction begins, and the new proposal must still be approved by San Diego County.

The project highlights the ongoing tension between addressing the region's housing crisis and ensuring development is sustainable and safe in an era of increasing climate-related hazards.

SIDEBAR: Housing Costs and Fire Insurance Concerns at Otay Ranch Village 13

Projected Housing Costs

The Otay Ranch Village 13 development will add up to 2,750 new housing units to San Diego County's housing stock, offering a variety of housing types at different price points. According to Nick Lee, chief operating officer for Baldwin & Sons, the settlement allows for a wider variety of housing options that will include far more affordable homes compared to the original plan.

While specific prices for the Village 13 development haven't been publicly announced, similar properties in the existing Otay Ranch communities provide insight into potential costs:

In comparable Otay Ranch neighborhoods, single-family homes typically range from $875,000 to $1.1 million for properties around 2,000 square feet. Condos in the area generally sell for between $550,000 to $700,000.

Mello-Roos Assessments

Like most new developments in San Diego County, Otay Ranch Village 13 homeowners will likely face significant Mello-Roos assessments. Mello-Roos taxes are special property taxes added to the standard 1% tax rate mandated by Proposition 13, with payment periods typically ranging from 25 to 40 years. These special district taxes fund infrastructure such as roads, utilities, schools, and public services in the new community.

Current homeowners in existing Otay Ranch Village neighborhoods are required to pay monthly HOA fees and Mello-Roos taxes in addition to their mortgage payments. The exact amount of Mello-Roos taxes for Village 13 has not been publicly disclosed, but these assessments can add several thousand dollars annually to homeownership costs.

Fire Insurance Challenges

Despite the settlement agreement's fire mitigation measures, no public commitments have been secured regarding fire insurance availability for future residents. This remains a significant concern as the development is located in an area that has been impacted by wildfires multiple times.

As one commenter noted in response to news about the development, "There is no such thing as 'wildfire-safe housing' in a high risk area. I can almost hear them in the sales office now, stating 'of course it won't be any problem to get insurance'."

The fire insurance market in California has been increasingly volatile, with many insurers restricting coverage in high-risk wildfire zones. As noted in reporting on similar developments, existing homeowners in fire-prone areas have seen significant jumps in their insurance premiums, "which they attributed to insurers shying away from the high fire risk in the area."

The development includes substantial fire mitigation measures, but whether these will be sufficient to secure affordable insurance coverage for future residents remains uncertain.

SIDEBAR: Wildfire Risk and Evacuation Challenges at Otay Ranch Village 13

Critical Evacuation Concerns

The aerial view of the Otay Ranch Village 13 development reveals several significant evacuation challenges that pose serious risks to future residents. The layout shows that Otay Lakes Road serves as the primary—and in many places only—evacuation route for the entire development.

Examining the visual simulations provided in the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) confirms that the development relies on a constrained transportation network along a two-lane scenic highway that would need to accommodate thousands of vehicles during an emergency evacuation.

Topography Amplifies Fire Risk

The development is situated in a particularly challenging landscape for fire safety:

The site is surrounded by steep hills and ravines that can accelerate fire spread through chimney and terrain effects
The hillside placement creates classic "wildland-urban interface" conditions where homes directly abut natural vegetation
The aerial view shows significant natural vegetation throughout the development, which would serve as fuel during a wildfire
The rocky, low rolling hills with sparse, scrubby vegetation are highly flammable during dry conditions

Limited Escape Routes

The development's physical constraints create significant evacuation bottlenecks:

Only one primary access road (Otay Lakes Road) serves the entire community
Development is spread across multiple hillsides with internal road networks that funnel to limited exit points
Lower Otay Lake forms a barrier on the south side, preventing evacuation in that direction
The planned 2,750 housing units could represent over 5,000 vehicles attempting to evacuate simultaneously

Settlement Mitigation Measures

The recent settlement agreement includes several measures to address these risks, though questions remain about their sufficiency:

Widening Otay Lakes Road to a minimum of four lanes to improve evacuation capacity
Including a fire station within the development to provide faster initial response
Installing exterior sprinklers on perimeter buildings
Implementing wildfire surveillance systems
Creating a 120-foot minimum fuel modification zone between structures and natural vegetation
Adding a wildfire education program for residents
Restricting high-risk activities on red flag days

Expert Concerns

Despite these mitigation measures, fire safety experts have expressed continuing concerns:

Van Collinsworth of Preserve Wild Santee has questioned whether the risk reduction measures are "sufficient for the long-term" given worsening climate conditions
Peter Broderick of the Center for Biological Diversity stated that "we just shouldn't be pushing new, low-density developments into wildfire-prone areas"
California Attorney General Rob Bonta noted that officials "can no longer ignore the realities of climate change" when planning developments
Cal Fire San Diego Unit Chief Tony Mecham offered support for the project, calling it "probably the safest from a fire protection standpoint" of projects brought before the board

The development's approval and subsequent settlement reflect the difficult balance between addressing the region's housing needs and ensuring resident safety in an increasingly fire-prone environment.

Effectiveness of Wildfire Mitigation Measures at Otay Ranch Village 13

The effectiveness of the wildfire mitigation measures for Otay Ranch Village 13 can be evaluated based on their potential to address specific risk factors, past performance in similar developments, and expert opinions. Here's an assessment of their likely effectiveness:

Road Widening and Evacuation Improvements

Widening Otay Lakes Road to four lanes would theoretically double evacuation capacity, but this improvement has significant limitations:

Even with four lanes, the road remains a single evacuation corridor that could become blocked by accidents, fallen trees, or fire itself
Traffic congestion would still be severe with potentially thousands of vehicles attempting to evacuate simultaneously
The effectiveness depends on early evacuation orders, as delayed evacuations have proven deadly in other California wildfires like the 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise

On-Site Fire Station

Having a dedicated fire station within the development offers several advantages:

Reduces initial response time to fires within or threatening the development
Provides a staging area for additional resources during major incidents
Allows for more regular property inspections and community education

However, during a major wildfire, a single station would be quickly overwhelmed, and its effectiveness would depend on external reinforcements that might be deployed elsewhere during regional fire events. Reinforcement accessibility could be limited bye the same road factors limiting evacuation, so airborne assets could be deployed. Otay Lake could provide a valuable water resource for these. If high speed turbulent Santa Ana winds and/or darkness prevent flight, then the airborne assets could be very limited.

Exterior Sprinkler Systems and Building Standards

The exterior sprinklers on perimeter buildings represent an innovative approach but have practical limitations:

Effectiveness depends on maintaining water pressure during emergencies, which is often compromised during wildfires
Power outages during fires could disable pumping systems unless robust backup systems are in place. SDG&E has frequently cut power during times of wildfire risk.
While potentially helpful for ember protection, these systems are untested at scale in real-world wildfire conditions

Fuel Modification Zones

The 120-foot fuel modification buffer between structures and native vegetation follows established practices but has known limitations:

Studies show these zones can reduce structure loss under moderate fire conditions
During extreme fire events with high winds, embers can travel a mile or more, easily crossing such buffers
Effectiveness depends on consistent maintenance over decades, which is difficult to ensure through changing ownership and management

Wildfire Surveillance and Education

Early detection systems and resident education represent supporting measures with moderate effectiveness:

Early detection is valuable but only if paired with rapid response capabilities
Resident education programs have shown some success in improving evacuation compliance
Restrictions on high-risk activities during red flag days address human-caused ignitions but not lightning or power line failures

Expert Assessment of Overall Effectiveness

Fire safety experts remain divided on whether these measures, even collectively, provide adequate protection:

Cal Fire San Diego Unit Chief Tony Mecham's endorsement suggests the measures meet current professional standards
Environmental experts have expressed continuing skepticism about building in high-risk areas regardless of mitigation
Climate scientists point to worsening fire conditions that may overwhelm mitigation measures designed for historical fire behavior

Comparable Development Outcomes

The performance of similar developments during recent California wildfires suggests mixed effectiveness:

Some newer master-planned communities with similar mitigations have survived major fires relatively intact
Others have experienced catastrophic losses despite mitigation measures, particularly during extreme wind-driven events
The specific topography of Otay Ranch Village 13, with its limited access points and surrounding steep terrain, poses greater challenges than some other developments

Conclusion

While the mitigation measures represent best practices and will likely reduce fire risk compared to unmitigated development, they cannot eliminate the fundamental risks associated with placing thousands of homes in a fire-prone wildland interface area with limited evacuation routes. Their effectiveness will ultimately depend on factors beyond control, including weather conditions during fire events, the timing of evacuation orders, and the availability of firefighting resources that may be stretched thin during major regional fires.

The settlement agreement acknowledges these limitations by focusing on risk reduction rather than risk elimination, implicitly accepting that some level of risk remains even with all mitigations in place.

Sources:

inewsource.org. "Major San Diego development clears hurdle despite fire risk." April 16, 2025. https://inewsource.org/2025/04/16/san-diego-county-housing-development-otay-ranch-fire-risk/
Aumann Bender & Associates. "7 Things You Need To Know About Mello Roos San Diego." August 15, 2022. https://www.luxurysocalrealty.com/blog/mello-roos/
Davis Vanguard. "Otay Ranch Village 13 Settlement Paves Way for Wildfire-Safe Housing Development." March 2025. https://davisvanguard.org/2025/03/otay-ranch-village-13-settlement-paves-way-for-wildfire-safe-housing-development/
County of San Diego. "Otay Ranch Village 13 Master Planned Community - Resort Village." https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/pds/ceqa/OtayRanchVillage13.html
Baldwin & Sons. "Otay Ranch Village 13." https://www.otayranchvillage13.com/
NBC 7 San Diego. "Otay Lakes-area development plan will preserve more open space but add more housing." March 2025. https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/deal-for-otay-lakes-area-development-preserves-more-open-space-but-adds-more-housing/3790310/
Baldwin & Sons. "Luxury Living | Otay Ranch Homes | New Home Builder in Chula Vista, CA." https://www.otayranch.com
inewsource. "Eastlake homeowners pay millions in Mello-Roos school taxes but money goes elsewhere." February 25, 2019. https://inewsource.org/2018/07/31/eastlake-mello-roos-taxes-money/
City of Lake Forest. "Mello-Roos." https://www.lakeforestca.gov/en/departments/community-development/housing/new-neighborhoods/portola-center/mello-roos
Homes.com. "About Otay Ranch Village | Schools, Demographics, Things to Do." https://www.homes.com/local-guide/chula-vista-ca/otay-ranch-village-neighborhood/
Times of San Diego. "Otay Ranch Village Development Can Proceed After Parties Agree to Limit Wildfire Risks." March 26, 2025. https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2025/03/26/otay-ranch-village-development-can-proceed-after-parties-agree-to-limit-wildfire-risks/
Office of the Attorney General. "Attorney General Bonta: Otay Ranch Village 13 Project Settlement Will Reduce Wildfire Risk While Increasing Opportunity for New Housing." March 2025. https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-otay-ranch-village-13-project-settlement-will-reduce
inewsource. "Courts block San Diego housing projects over wildfire risks." June 15, 2023. https://inewsource.org/2022/06/15/rural-homes-fire-risk
Draft Final Environmental Impact Report (EIR) Otay Ranch Resort Village - Village 13 https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/pds/ceqa/OtayRanchVillage13.html

Major San Diego development clears hurdle despite fire risk

*(Illustration by Iran Martinez/inewsource.*

Why this matters

The San Diego region is in the middle of a housing and affordability crisis, but in the face of a warming planet where extreme weather is more common, new developments will continue to face environmental scrutiny.

A legal settlement last month opened the door for a 450-acre development in southeastern San Diego County, including up to 2,750 new housing units as well as a fire station and elementary school.

The settlement marks the latest hurdle cleared by a Southern California developer and environmentalist groups, which filed the lawsuit in 2020 over concerns for wildlife, greenhouse gas emissions and fire safety.

Hailed as a win for all sides, the agreement spells out an opportunity for more housing on a smaller footprint, reducing environmental impacts and wildfire ignition risk. It also calls for fire surveillance and exterior sprinkler systems.

The proposed site is just north of where the Border 2 fire, aided by extremely dry and windy conditions, consumed more than 6,600 acres earlier this year — raising questions about development practices as global leaders grapple with climate change, which has led to warmer, dryer conditions and longer fire seasons, according to national climate studies.

“Considering fossil fuel emissions continue to set the planet ablaze, I don’t think anyone knows if the risk reduction measures are sufficient for the long-term,” said Van Collinsworth, director of Preserve Wild Santee — one of the parties involved in the settlement. Even so, he said he’s satisfied with the outcome because the area offers unique advantages to preventing and fighting wildfires should they occur, including proximity to the Lower Otay Reservoir.

“The developer has built into the settlement feasible risk reductions for the site.”

In 2020, the San Diego County Board of Supervisors approved the development, known as Otay Ranch Village 13, for an area that has been impacted by wildfires. A coalition of environmental nonprofits, later supported by the California Attorney General, filed a lawsuit under the state’s environmental law to challenge the location of thousands of new residents in the fire-prone area, which is home to endangered and threatened wildlife species.

The settlement reached last month with the developer, known as Baldwin & Sons, reduces the footprint by 40% while adding 300 acres of open space for habitat preservation, and creates an opportunity to apply for hundreds more housing units than originally planned. It also requires the developer to:

Achieve a net-zero energy design for all single-family residential and commercial buildings.
Make all buildings fully electric.
Pay at least $15 million toward local greenhouse gas mitigation.

“For future development projects in California … we just shouldn’t be pushing new, low-density developments into wildfire-prone areas,” said Peter Broderick, a senior attorney and legal director for the Urban Wildlands Program at the Center for Biological Diversity — another party to the lawsuit. “But the county approved this project and we think that the mitigation measures … make this a better project than what the county approved.”

The development is still years down the road — after permitting and planning, the developer anticipates three years before building even starts — and the new proposal would need to be approved by San Diego County.

Supervisor Joel Anderson, a Republican who took office to represent this area in January 2021, declined to comment.

“We’re grateful that we will be able to achieve our housing goals while delivering a village that provides additional preservation of environmental resources and is built to standards that address the realities of climate change,” said Nick Lee, CEO of Baldwin & Sons. “We hope that this development can be a model for how we can meet the region’s housing needs while also being good environmental stewards.”

In a statement celebrating the settlement, Attorney General Rob Bonta said officials must account for wildfire risks when planning development.

“From Los Angeles to San Diego, we are seeing devastating wildfires ravaging our communities right before our eyes. We can no longer ignore the realities of climate change,” Bonta said in the statement. This “settlement recognizes that environmental protection and housing go hand in hand, aiming to create more resilient, sustainable homes while reducing wildfire risk and protecting our environment.”

Correction: April 16, 2025
This story has been updated to remove mention of a resort hotel, which was included in error on a publicly available project website.

Type of Content

News: Based on facts, either observed and verified directly by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.

Cody Dulaney is an investigative reporter at inewsource focusing on social impact and government accountability. Few things excite him more than building spreadsheets and knocking on the door of people who refuse to return his calls. When he’s not ruffling the feathers of some public official, Cody...

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