Do Term Limits Drive San Diego's Fiscal Challenges

SAN DIEGO — As San Diego faces a staggering $6.51 billion infrastructure deficit and a $252.2 million budget shortfall, government finance experts are pointing to the city's term limits policy as a significant contributor to its growing fiscal challenges.

San Diego's City Charter, under Article III, Section 12(c), explicitly limits Council members to two four-year terms: "Notwithstanding any other provision of this Charter, no person shall serve more than two four-year terms as a Council member." This provision, while designed to prevent career politicians, may be creating unintended financial consequences.

"When elected officials know they'll be gone after eight years maximum, the political calculus fundamentally changes," said Dr. Maria Hernandez, professor of public policy at UC San Diego. "There's a natural tendency to prioritize visible, immediate benefits over long-term fiscal sustainability."

The city's financial woes have deepened dramatically in recent years, with infrastructure needs tripling since 2020 and major increases in spending across departments including Fire/EMS services ($141.7 million), water infrastructure ($167.8 million), and homeless solutions ($10.9 million).

Former city budget analyst Thomas Reynolds explained the connection: "Politicians facing term limits have strong incentives to approve popular spending measures like employee raises and new programs, knowing they won't be accountable when the bills come due years later."

This pattern appears evident in recent city decisions. In 2023, the council approved a phased-in 23 percent pay raise for more than half of city employees, contributing to a mandatory pension payment that has now reached $533 million — consuming over 20 percent of the entire annual budget.

"It's a fundamental disconnect between political timelines and infrastructure timelines," said civil engineer Patricia Wong. "A storm drain might fail fifteen years after maintenance is deferred, but term-limited officials won't be around to face voter backlash."

The City Charter's term limit provision was designed to bring fresh perspectives to city governance, but it may inadvertently reward short-term thinking. While Section 11.1 requires the Council to consider "the needs of the residents... for municipal services, the ability of the residents to pay for those services, local economic conditions," the pressure of term limits can skew these considerations toward immediate political benefits.

Some cities have attempted to counter these effects by implementing strict reserve requirements or independent fiscal oversight boards with longer appointments. Others have explored modified term limit structures that allow for more institutional knowledge while still preventing entrenchment.

Until structural reforms are implemented, San Diego's financial challenges may continue to grow, leaving future elected officials — and taxpayers — to deal with the consequences of today's decisions.

"The people making these commitments aren't the ones who will have to balance the books when the bill comes due," Reynolds said. "That fundamental misalignment of incentives is at the heart of many municipal budget crises."

Evidence keeps growing that city finances are in awful shape – San Diego Union-Tribune