San Diego home prices climb past median $million mark
Summary
1. Record-breaking milestone: The median price of a resale single-family home in San Diego County reached $1,001,500 in May 2024, crossing the $1 million mark for the first time.
2. Overall market increase: San Diego County's overall median home price (including newly built homes, resale homes, and condos) hit a new high of $898,000 in May, up 10.9% from the previous year.
3. Limited inventory: There were around 4,500 homes for sale in May, which is up from the start of the year but still historically low compared to past years.
4. Strong price growth: Among large U.S. metro areas, San Diego posted the highest year-over-year price gain at 9.2% in May 2024.
5. Market factors:
- Low inventory due to homeowners reluctant to sell and lose their low mortgage rates
- Limited new home construction (only 1,225 single-family homes built in the previous year)
- Continued strong demand despite higher interest rates
6. Condo and new construction prices: The resale condo median was $715,000 in May, while the newly built median (combining single-family homes, townhouses, and condos) was $843,500.
7. Sales volume: Home sales are still down considerably from historical norms, with May 2024 having the second-lowest number of sales for that month in records going back to 1988.
8. Regional context: San Diego joins Orange County as the only Southern California markets with median home prices over $1 million.
9. Future outlook: Experts expect prices to continue rising as long as there are more buyers than sellers in the market.
This summary reflects the San Diego housing market as of May 2024, showing significant price growth and reaching new milestones despite challenges such as high interest rates and low inventory.
Attached v. Single Family home prices
1. Single-family home appreciation:
- The median price of a resale single-family home reached $1,001,500 in May 2024.
- This was up from a revised $985,000 the previous month.
2. Condo appreciation:
- The resale condo median was $715,000 in May 2024.
- This was down from a peak of $723,000 the previous month.
3. Overall market appreciation:
- San Diego County's overall median (including newly built homes, resale homes, and condos) reached $898,000 in May 2024.
- This represents a 10.9% increase in a year.
4. Price gap:
- The article mentions that the price growth gap between detached homes (single-family) and attached homes (including condos) has widened.
- This suggests that single-family homes are appreciating faster than condos.
5. Reasons for the difference:
- The article cites homebuyer preferences for more personal space to work from home after the pandemic as a factor favoring single-family homes.
- Surging HOA fees due to maintenance costs are mentioned as a potential factor affecting condo prices.
6. Market share:
- Resale single-family homes make up the majority of the real estate market in San Diego County, accounting for more than 60% of home sales in May.
While the article doesn't provide exact appreciation rates for comparison, it suggests that single-family homes are experiencing stronger price growth compared to condos in the San Diego market. The widening price gap and the factors mentioned (work-from-home preferences and HOA fees) support this trend.
It's worth noting that without specific year-over-year appreciation rates for each category, we can't quantify the exact difference in appreciation between condos and single-family homes. For a more precise comparison, additional data points from previous years would be necessary.
Nationwide Hottest and Coldest Markets
Fastest Appreciating Regions:
1. New Hampshire: 12% year-over-year increase2. New Jersey: 9.8% year-over-year increase
3. Rhode Island: 9.8% year-over-year increase
4. San Diego, CA: 9.2% year-over-year increase (among large metro areas)
The article doesn't provide a complete top 5 list, but it does mention that the Northeast region is leading the country in annual appreciation.
Slowest Appreciating Regions:
Some areas are at risk of price declines, which could be interpreted as slower appreciating or potentially depreciating markets:1. Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL: Listed as having a 70%-plus probability of price decline
2. Gainesville, FL: Listed as at very high risk for price declines
3. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA: Listed as at very high risk for price declines
4. Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA: Listed as at very high risk for price declines
5. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL: Listed as at very high risk for price declines
The article also mentions that markets with notable inventory increases, including those in Florida and Texas, are seeing annual deceleration that is pulling prices below numbers recorded last year. This suggests these areas might be among the slower appreciating regions.
San Diego home prices join Orange County’s million-dollar milestone – San Diego Union-Tribune
San Diego home prices have hit a new, possibly inevitable, landmark.
The median price of a resale single-family home reached $1,001,500 in May, CoreLogic revealed this week, up from a revised $985,000 the previous month. It is a record high for San Diego County, joining only one other Southern California market, Orange County, in having prices top the $1 million mark.
San Diego County’s overall median, which includes newly built homes, resale homes and condos, also reached a new high in May of $898,000, up 10.9 percent in a year. Experts say the single-family milestone was unavoidable with limited homes for sale and strong competition for whatever is out there.
“It was inevitable,” said Mark Goldman, a San Diego loan officer and real estate analyst, about the $1 million mark, “and it will surpass that.”
Goldman said as long as there are more buyers than sellers the price will keep rising. By the middle of 2023, 91.8 percent of U.S mortgage holders had a rate below 6 percent, said Redfin, making it unlikely they would want to move and take on a new mortgage around the 7 percent mark. This creates a low inventory of properties for home shoppers.
There were around 4,500 homes for sale in May, said the Redfin Data Center. That’s
up from a low point of roughly 3,000 to start the year, but still down
from historical averages. For example, experts were bemoaning 6,300 homes for sale in 2019 as too low.
Resale single-family homes make up the majority of the real estate market in San Diego County, accounting for more than 60 percent of home sales in May. New homes have very little impact on the market. There were 1,225 single-family homes constructed last year in San Diego County, according to the Construction Industry Research Board — a number so low compared to past years that it surprised housing analysts.
So will San Diego homeowners of the future all live in townhouses and condos? Goldman said that’s not necessarily true, considering single-family homes are still the most desired, but he did point to recent data that homes are getting smaller. In the first three months of the year, a new single-family home in the U.S. had a median 2,140 square feet of floor space, according to the U.S. Census, down from 2,256 square feet at the same time last year.
Mauricio Perez-Vazquez, a Chula Vista real estate agent and board member on the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, said the market is beginning to feel like a few years ago with multiple offers.
He put a 1,608-square-foot single-family home in south San Diego, near Imperial Beach, on the market last week for $775,000 and has received four offers over asking. The three-bedroom, two-bathroom home was built in 1960 and Perez-Vazquez said he anticipates it will sell somewhere above $800,000.
“I think people have gotten used to this as the new norm,” he said of higher interest rates. “The old 3 percent (mortgage rate) is now kind of an urban legend.”
On the last day of May, the average interest rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 7.17 percent, said Mortgage News Daily. It was down to 7.08 percent by Wednesday afternoon. In May 2021, the average rate was 3.13 percent.
Assuming 20 percent down, the monthly cost for a resale single-family home ($1,001,500) in May would be around $5,850. With May 2021’s rate, it would be about $3,860.
The resale condo median was $715,000 in May, down from a peak of $723,000 the previous month. The newly built median was $843,500, a figure that combines single-family homes, townhouses and condos. It was down from a peak of $1.2 million in July, when there was an influx of newly built single-family homes, lifting the median higher.
Home sales are still down considerably from historical norms. There were 2,485 home sales in May, the second-lowest figure for that month in records going back to 1988. The lowest was May 2020, with 2,327, when the start of the pandemic greatly slowed the market.
The Greater San Diego Association of Realtors said in September 2023 that the median home price had crossed $1 million. However, that figure included only transactions that used a Realtor, unlike CoreLogic data, which tracks all sales regardless of a real estate agent’s involvement.
All Southern California markets have seen price increases annually, but some have had monthly slowdowns. Here’s a look at the median prices across the region:
Los Angeles County: Up 1.7 percent monthly for a median of $890,000; up 10.6 percent annually.
Orange County: Flat month-over-month for a median of $1.2 million; up 20 percent in a year.
Riverside County: Down 0.8 percent monthly to a median of $585,000; up 5.4 percent annually.
San Bernardino County: Flat month-over-month for a median of $500,000; up 5.3 percent in a year.
San Diego County: Up 1.5 percent monthly for a median of $898,000; up 10.9 percent in a year.
Ventura County: Down 1.6 percent month to a median of $822,000; up 2.2 percent annually.
US Home Price Insights – July 2024
Through May 2024 With Forecasts Through May 2025
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.9% in May 2024 compared with May 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices grew by 0.6% in May 2024 compared with April 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).
Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.7% from May 2024 to June 2024 and increase by 3% on a year-over-year basis from May 2024 to May 2025.
Detached Home Price Gains Continue to Outpace Attached Home Growth
U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down to 4.9% in May, though it was still the 148th consecutive month of annual growth. As has been the case for the past year, the Northeast continued to lead the country for annual appreciation, with New Hampshire the only state to post a double-digit increase. Meanwhile, the price growth gap between detached homes and attached homes further widened, likely indicating homebuyer preferences for more personal space to work from home after the height of the pandemic, as well as surging HOA fees due to maintenance costs.
“While national annual home price growth continues to slow as anticipated, cooling appreciation over the past months is now observed in more markets, as the surge in mortgage rates this spring caused both slowing homebuyer demand and prices. However, persistently stronger home price gains this spring continue in markets where inventory is well below pre-pandemic levels, such as those in the Northeast. Also, markets that are relatively more affordable, such as those in the Midwest, have seen healthy price growth this spring. On the other hand, markets with notable inventory increases, including those in Florida and Texas, continue to see annual deceleration that is pulling prices below numbers recorded last year.”
Dr. Selma Hepp
– Chief Economist for CoreLogic
HPI National and State Maps – May 2024
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
Nationally, home prices increased by 4.9% year over year in May. No states posted annual home price declines. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Hampshire (12%) and New Jersey and Rhode Island (both up by 9.8%).
HPI Top 10 Metros Change
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. Below is a look at home price changes in 10 select large U.S. metros in May, with San Diego posting the highest gain at 9.2% year over year.
Markets to Watch: Top Markets at Risk of Home Price Decline
The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, FL (70%-plus probability) is at a very high risk of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Gainesville, FL; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL are also at very high risk for price declines.
Summary
CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Methodology
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.
About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.
Source: CoreLogic
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